The center-right coalition has ranked first, with 37% of the votes, standing before, respectively, the 5 Star Movement, with 32% of the votes, and the center-left group, the alliance backing the outgoing Government, still at 23%. However, considering that no group has obtained a valid majority, the real winners of the consultations are not the coalition blocks, as presented to the voters, but the following individual political forces:
- the 5 Star Movement lead by Luigi Di Maio, which broke through the threshold of 30% of votes and is currently ranked as the first party in the country, with a consensus mainly located in the southern regions;
- the Lega Nord – the League – lead by Matteo Salvini, which has quadrupled its consent base, compared with five years ago, overtaking Forza Italia within the center-right coalition, and reaching around 18% of the overall votes.
On the contrary, the more moderate and Europeanist forces (PD – the Democratic Party – and Forza Italia) have suffered a strong decrease in votes obtained.
In the coming weeks, the President of the Italian Republic will steer the negotiations among the political forces for the formation of a new government. The next formal passage, during which we could expect some initial agreements to be achieved, is the establishment of the Parliament, on the 23rd March.
However, the scenario stands out for its extreme fluidity: the absence of a clear majority does not allow for making accurate forecasts. Although one must believe the 5 Star Movement will play an important role in the next few weeks. For greater clarity, however, we will have to wait at least until the first official statements of the leaders of the main parties are issued.
In the attached report we attempt to analyze the outcomes (on the basis of the latest real-time results) and to predict all the possible scenarios, on the condition that the official figures have not yet been published.